Concepts › health-logic

Base Rates

The Numbers Most Health Claims Leave Out

9 min

Bottom Line
A risk, side effect, or positive test result means very little until you know the denominator. The missing number is often the most important one.
Quick Summary

Base rate neglect is one of the biggest reasons people overreact to scary headlines, test results, and rare outcomes. Without the baseline, numbers are easy to misread.

What You'll Learn
  • ✓
    What a base rate is
  • ✓
    Why people misjudge rare events
  • ✓
    Why positive tests are often misunderstood
  • ✓
    How to ask for the number that matters most
Key Question
Out of how many?
HealthLit Take
A scary number means very little until you know the denominator.
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